The various election systems used throughout the world can be divided into three families: Plurality-Majority, Proportional, and Semi-Proportional. Each family has its own characteristics, advantages and disadvantages. All three families of systems can be used for electing legislative bodies, such as the state legislature, city councils, and school boards. For executive offices, such as governo...

this paper examines the impact of 2005 presidential election of iran on the tehran stock exchange volatility as a political shock. it uses garch family (fiegarch, egarch, and garch) and markov regime switching (mrs) models as the analytical frameworks for the main the stock daily prices index. our findings confirm statistical validity of arima – fiegarch-x and ar(1) mrs as appropriate specifica...

This paper demonstrates the feasibility and usefulness of survey research asking respondents to report voting probabilities in hypothetical election scenarios. Posing scenarios enriches the data available for studies of voting decisions, as a researcher can pose many more and varied scenarios than the elections that persons actually face. Multiple scenarios were presented to over 4,000 particip...

The 2016 presidential election season and subsequent political events have had physical and emotional impacts on youth. We collected qualitative insights from 14 to 24 year olds across the US related to these events over time. Open-ended probes were sent via text message at three time points before and after the 2016 presidential election. The majority of youth reported emotional stress during ...

Accounting for undecided and uncertain voters is a challenging issue for predicting election results from public opinion polls. Undecided voters typify the uncertainty of swing voters in polls but are often ignored or allocated to each candidate in a simple, deterministic manner. Historically this may have been adequate because the undecided were comparatively small enough to assume that they d...

T he trial-heat forecasting equation grew out of an examination of Gallup’s trial-heat polls ~“if the election were held today, who would you vote for?”! at various points in election years as predictors of the November vote ~Campbell and Wink 1990!. My co-author Ken Wink and I found, not surprisingly, that polls as literal forecasts were not very accurate until just before the election, that t...

The body of content available on Twitter undoubtedly contains a diverse range of political insight and commentary. But, to what extent is this representative of an electorate? Can we model political sentiment effectively enough to capture the voting intentions of a nation during an election capaign? We use the recent Irish General Election as a case study for investigating the potential to mode...

A Leader is a Coordinator that supports a set of processes to cooperate a given task. This concept is used in several domains such as distributed systems, parallelism and cooperative support for cooperative work. In completely asynchronous systems, there is no solution for the election problem satisfying both of safety and liveness properties in asynchronous distributed systems. Therefore, to s...

We study a two-stage election with two parties, each nominating a candidate in the first stage primary election to compete with the other party’s nominee in the second stage general election. This resembles the U.S. presidential election and is used in many countries in the world, but has largely escaped attention in the literature. We extend Coleman (1971) and Roemer (1997) to model such elect...