We use high-frequency intra-day realized volatility to evaluate the relative forecasting performance of several models for the volatility of crude oil daily spot returns. Our objective is to evaluate the predictive ability of time-invariant and Markov switching GARCH models over different horizons. Using Carasco, Hu and Ploberger (2014) test for regime switching in the mean and variance of the ...

â â â â â â â  this paper proposes a new forecasting model for investigating relationship between the price of crude oil, as an important energy source and gdp of the us, as the largest oil consumer, and the uk, as the oil producer. gmdh neural network and mlff neural network approaches, which are both non-linear models, are employed to forecast gdp responses to the oil price changes. the resul...

Forecasts of agricultural production and prices are intended to be useful for farmers, governments, and agribusiness industries. Because of the special position of food production in a nation’s security, governments have become both principal suppliers and main users of agricultural forecasts. They need internal forecasts to execute policies that provide technical and market support for the agr...

Ability to predict direction of stock/index price accurately is crucial for market dealers or investors to maximize their profits. Data mining techniques have been successfully shown to generate high forecasting accuracy of stock price movement. Nowadays, in stead of a single method, traders need to use various forecasting techniques to gain multiple signals and more information about the futur...

Day-ahead forecasting of electricity prices is important in deregulated electricity markets for all the stakeholders: energy wholesalers, traders, retailers, and consumers. Electricity price forecasting is an inherently difficult problem due to its special characteristic of dynamicity and non-stationarity. In this paper, we present a robust price forecasting mechanism that shows resilience towa...

At the micro perspectives, many studies have identified total shipment quantity, wholesale price at previous day, national holiday effect, as the variables affecting the wholesale price level of stored apple. However, the report of production volume effect at a given year on wholesale price level from the point of macro perspectives in practice, especially in agricultural industry, has been rel...

An important financial subject that has attracted researchers' attention for many years is forecasting stock return. Many researchers have contributed in this area of chaotic forecast in their ways. Among them data mining techniques have been successfully shown to generate high forecasting accuracy of stock price movement. Nowadays, instead of a single aspects of stock market, traders need...

Crude oil is a highly strategic commodity. This paper investigates the necessity of using interval data and interval econometric models for crude oil price forecasting. Compared to the traditional point-valued data, interval-valued data in a time period contain much more valuable information which is useful for market participant to make decisions. We develop three autoregressive conditional in...

Stock market forecasting research offers many challenges and opportunities, with the forecasting of individual stocks or indexes focusing on forecasting either the level (value) of future market prices, or the direction of market price movement. A three-stage stock market prediction system is introduced in this article. In the first phase, Multiple Regression Analysis is applied to define the e...

Stock market prediction is regarded as a challenging task in financial time-series forecasting. The central idea to successful stock market prediction is achieving best results using minimum required input data and the least complex stock market model. To achieve these purposes this article presents an integrated approach based on genetic fuzzy systems (GFS) and artificial neural networks (ANN)...