Coffee is both an important source of export revenue for developing countries and the underlying asset for the largest futures markets in soft commodities. This paper examines the interdependence of these spot and futures markets, with particular emphasis on the effect futures trading activity, especially speculative behaviour, has on the price risk in spot markets. We identify change points as...

This paper examines the information content of trades by different participants via different trading channels in the spot foreign exchange market. Using spot FX transactions of a major Australian bank, we find that central banks have the greatest price impact, followed by nonbank financial institutions such as hedge funds and mutual funds. Trades by non-financial corporations have the least im...

We analyse a stochastic control problem for the valuation of a natural gas storage facility while taking into account operating characteristics. The underlying natural gas spot price dynamics is assumed to follow a time-inhomogeneous exponential Lévy process [6]. This underlying incorporates common features of gas spot prices such as seasonality, mean-reversion and price spikes with seasonal ju...

Many risk management strategies, including hedging the price risk using forward or futures contracts require accurate forecasts of basis, i.e., spot price minus the futures price. Recent literature in this area has applied nonlinear time-series models, which are refinements of the linear autoregressive models that allow the parameters to transition from one regime to another. These parametric n...

This study develops and estimates a stochastic volatility model of commodity prices that nests many of the previous models in the literature. The model is an affine three-factor model with one state variable driving the volatility and is maximal among all such models that are also identifiable. The model leads to quasianalytical formulas for futures and options prices. It allows for time-varyin...