Disinfection with chlorine and chloramine leads to the formation of many disinfection by-products including N-Nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA). Because NDMA is a probable human carcinogen, public health officials are concerned with its occurrence in drinking water. The goal of this study was to estimate NDMA concentrations from exogenous (i.e., drinking water and food) and endogenous (i.e., formed i...

The paper investigates the effects of uncertainty shocks in emerging economies (EMEs). We construct a global indicator as well country measures for fifteen relatively small economies. adopt an instrumental variable approach to identify exogenous EMEs. To deal with data limitations specific countries, we develop new Bayesian algorithm estimate proxy panel structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) ...

Abstract Weather forecasts are a rare example of public information which is, at the same time, relevant for agents' decisions and entirely exogenous both sides (tourism) market. We develop model where signals good weather have positive impact on accommodation prices, effect being stronger higher accuracy forecast ex-ante uncertainty in conditions. Using data from sea sun destination, we estima...

In this study we consider how to more accurately identify the possible impact of systemic risk on spatial dependence related most significant financial crises over last 17 years: Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, sub-prime mortgage crisis, European debt Brexit and COVID-19 pandemic which has also affected markets. We analyse two new dynamic distances applied stock markets based exogenous criteria kno...

We propose a variant of the recently introduced strategy for stabilization with limited information recently introduced in (Liberzon and Hespanha, 2005) and analyze its robustness properties. We show that, if the nominal plant can be made Input-to-State Stable (ISS) with respect to measurement errors, parameter uncertainty and exogenous disturbances, then this robustness is preserved with this ...

In an economy with a fixed exchange rate regime that suffers an adverse shock, we study the delay strategies of speculators that may trigger an endogenous devaluation before it occurs exogenously. The game played by the speculators has a unique symmetric Nash equilibrium which is a strongly rational expectation equilibrium. A higher uncertainty about the initial level of reserves of the Central...

This paper analyzes qualitatively and quantitatively the effects of declining mortality rates on fertility, education and economic growth. The analysis demonstrates that if individuals are prudent in the face of uncertainty about child survival, a decline in an exogenous mortality rate reduces precautionary demand for children and increases parental investment in each child. Once mortality is e...

The importance of consumer confidence in stimulating economic activity is a disputed issue in macroeconomics. Do changes in confidence represent autonomous fluctuations in optimism, independent of information on economic fundamentals, or are they a reflection of economic news? I study this question by using high-frequency microdata on spending and consumer confidence, and I find that consumer c...

In this paper we develop globally stabilizing robust/disturbance rejection controllers for rotating stall and surge in axial flow compressors with uncertain system dynamics and exogenous disturbances. Specifically, using the nonlinearnonquadratic disturbance rejection optimal control framework for systems with bounded energy (square-integrable) L2 disturbances developed in [15] and the nonlinea...

We analyze a simple sunspot model that represents a standard securities market without sidebets on an exogenous sunspot event. The multiple self–fulfilling equilibria that arise in the model are based on investors’ uncertainty about other investors’ beliefs. Hence, these multiple equilibria are “endogenous sunspots.” We show that endogenous sunspots can arise even with complete markets to which...