This paper examines the extent to which consumption in Russian households responds to exogenous income shocks. During the time period studied in this paper (1994 – 1998), Russia experienced two major economic crises. Both featured extreme movements in the real ruble-dollar exchange rate. The price of oil, which is typically thought to have a strong effect on the Russian economy, was also quite ...

We study how 3,534 beneficiaries of PROSPERA, Mexico's cash transfer program, smooth food consumption around the payday, an anticipated and transitory income shock. find that security do not change including for recipients with impatient or time-inconsistent preferences households higher than median dependence. Conversely, health employment shocks (unexpected less changes) reduce security. The ...

In this paper we study the asymptotic nonlinear stability of discrete shocks of the relaxing scheme for approximating the general system of nonlinear hyperbolic conservation laws. The existence of discrete shocks is established by suitable manifold construction, and it is shown that weak single discrete shocks for such a scheme are nonlinearly stable in L2, provided that the sums of the initial...

The downtrend in oil prices beginning in 2014 represents a challenge for smallopen developing and exporting economies like Libya. This stems from the importance of government revenue generated from the natural resource sector in financing government consumption and investment expenditures as well as capital imports. The dependency on the natural resource sector and a relatively weak non-natural...

The long term discount rate is critically dependent upon projections of future growth rates that are fuzzier in proportion to the remoteness of the time horizon. This paper models such increasing fuzziness as an evolving hidden-state stochastic process. The underlying trend growth rate is an unobservable random walk hidden by noisy transitory shocks and recoverable only as a probability distrib...

The potential benefits from globalization for developing countries are large. Greater real sector integration leads to higher welfare and growth due to a better allocation of resources, a greater specialization of production, and the transfer of technology through FDI flows. Financial integration provides the resources to take advantage of these new investment opportunities brought about by glo...

The paper analyzes two questions: (i) the effect of monetary policy shock on business cycle and (ii) the extent to which a shift in a monetary policy affects the dynamics of business cycle. Unlike previous literature, to answer the questions, we measure the cycle movements by calculating an index from a number of aggregate macroeconomic series via a dynamic factor model. We find that monetary p...

One aspect of the preceding quotation has been extensively studied in the economics literature. Numerous studies have examined the relationship between economic freedom and long-run economic growth across countries.1 The other aspect of Friedman’s statement—that referring to the relationship between economic freedom and shortrun macroeconomic stability—has received relatively little attention i...

This paper places non-monetary trade (NMT), a persistent growth of which in Russia in 1992-8 economists have struggled to explain, within the framework of the credit channel of the monetary policy. It shows that producers resorted to NMT responding to increases in the cost and unavailability of external funds. The paper traces the origin of structural breaks in the NMT trend and its transitory ...

This paper investigates the trend in the monthly real price of oil between 1990 and 2008 with a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. Trend and volatility are estimated jointly with the maximum likelihood estimation. There is long persistence in the variance of oil price shocks, and a GARCH unit root (GUR) test can potentially yield a significant power gain re...