Applying the simultaneous-equation model, this study finds that the output elasticity with respect to the real oil price is estimated to be -0.042, indicating that if the real oil price rises 10%, real GDP would decrease by 0.42%. In addition, real output in Korea is positively associated with the money supply, real deficit spending, and the real stock price and negatively influenced by real de...

Many emerging market economies oscillate between periods of high and low growth (see Aguiar and Gopinath, 2007). These changes in growth regimes generate business cycles that are markedly different from the ones observed in developed countries: consumption and investment are volatile relative to output, and net exports are strongly counter-cyclical. This volatility is often accompanied by sharp...

D espite a significant decline in the pace of economic growth in the second half of 2000, macroeconomic forecasters underpredicted real GDP growth and overpredicted the unemployment rate by a significant amount, for the fifth consecutive year. On average, real GDP forecasts were about 2 percentage points below the actual data for the 1996-2000 period, and unemployment rate forecasts about 0.5 p...

The recent revival of interest in nominal GDP (NGDP) targeting has come in the context of large advanced economies. We argue that the case for NGDP targeting is even more appealing for midsized developing countries, because they tend to be more susceptible to supply shocks and terms of trade shocks. For India, in particular, one major exogenous supply shock is the monsoon rains. NGDP targeting ...

Since Friedman (1953) and Poole (1970), an advantage often attributed to ßexible exchange rate regimes relative to Þxed regimes is their ability to better insulate the economy against real shocks. I use a post-Bretton Woods sample (1973-1996) of 74 developing countries to assess whether the business cycle response of real GDP, real exchange rates and inßation to terms of trade shocks differ sys...

Shocks to bank lending, risk-taking and securitization activities that are orthogonal to real economy and monetary policy innovations account for more than 30 percent of U.S. output variation. The dynamic effects, however, depend on the type of shock. Expansionary securitization shocks lead to a permanent rise in real GDP and a fall in inflation. Bank lending and risk-taking shocks, in contrast...

A new test of hypothesis for classifying stationary time series based on the biasadjusted estimators of fitted autoregressive model is proposed. It is shown theoretically that the proposed test has desirable properties. Simulation results show that when time series are short, the size and power estimates of the proposed test are reasonably good, and thus this test is reliable in discriminating ...