Since completing a " Trend-Delphi " based regional forecast and transportation plan in 1996, Metro has developed an integrated transportation and land use model (Metroscope). We are presently using the model to explore several regional growth management options as well as produce a new regional forecast and transportation plan. Comparing our Metroscope results to our previous forecast reveals t...

Generating one-month-ahead systematic (beta) risk forecasts is common place in financial management. This paper evaluates the accuracy of these beta forecasts in three return measurement settings; monthly, daily and 30 minutes. It is found that the popular Fama-MacBeth beta from 5 years of monthly returns generates the most accurate beta forecast among estimators based on monthly returns. A rea...

This paper studies whether managers use investor information they learn from the stock market when making forward-looking disclosures. Using annual management earnings forecasts from 1996 to 2010, I find that the association between forecast revisions and stock price changes over the revision periods is stronger when there is more informed trading. Further, the effect of investor information on...

The paper considers the forecasting of the euro/Polish złoty (EUR/PLN) spot exchange rate by applying state space wavelet network and econometric forecast combination models. Both prediction methods are applied to produce one-trading-dayahead forecasts of the EUR/PLN exchange rate. The paper presents the general state space wavelet network and forecast combination models as well as their underl...

This study examines the benefits of nonlinear time series modelling to improve forecast accuracy of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The paper adopts a smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) modelling framework to assess the potentially regime-dependent dynamics of sea surface temperature anomaly. The results reveal STAR-type nonlinearities in ENSO dynamics, resulting in sup...

It is important to forecast the pedestrian flows for organizing crowd activities and making risk assessments. In this article, the daily pedestrian flows in the Tiananmen Square are forecasted based on historical data, the distribution of holidays and weather conditions including rain, wind, temperature, relative humidity, and AQI (Air Quality Index). Three different methods have been discussed...

Forecasting reservoir inflow is important to hydropower reservoir management and scheduling. An Adaptive-Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) is successfully developed to forecast the long-term discharges in Manwan Hydropower. Using the long-term observations of discharges of monthly river flow discharges during 1953-2003, different types of membership functions and antecedent input flo...

We study single and multi-period quantity flexible contracts involving one demand forecast update in each period and a spot market. We obtain the optimal order quantity at the beginning of a period and order quantities on contract and from the spot market at the then prevailing price after the forecast revision and before the demand materialization. The amount that can be purchased on contract ...

Managers face a number of incentives to report earnings that meet or exceed the consensus analyst forecast. If a firm’s results of operations are not sufficient to meet the analysts’ expectations for a given period, the manager may 1) use accrual based earnings management techniques or 2) structure actual transactions to achieve the desired financial reporting result. Additionally, the manager ...