A series of experimental forecasts are performed to evaluate the impact of satellite-derived winds on numerical hurricane track predictions using the GFDL model. Over 100 cases are examined from 10 different storms covering 3 seasons (1996-1998), enabling us to account for the large case-to-case variability in the forecast results when assessing the wind impact. On average, assimilation of the ...

Historical climate simulations of the period 1861–2000 using two new Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) global climate models (CM2.0 and CM2.1) are compared with observed surface temperatures. All-forcing runs include the effects of changes in well-mixed greenhouse gases, ozone, sulfates, black and organic carbon, volcanic aerosols, solar flux, and land cover. Indirect effects of trop...

Tropical intraseasonal variability is examined in version 3 of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory AtmosphereModel (AM3). In contrast to its predecessor AM2, AM3 uses a new treatment of deep and shallow cumulus convection and mesoscale clouds. The AM3 cumulus parameterization is a massflux-based scheme but also, unlike that in AM2, incorporates subgrid-scale vertical velocities; these pla...

The transient responses of two versions of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled climate model to a climate change forcing scenario are examined. The same computer codes were used to construct the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land surface components of the two models, and they employ the same types of sub-grid-scale parameterization schemes. The two model versions differ pr...

24 25 Tropical intraseasonal variability is examined in version 3 of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics 26 Laboratory Atmosphere Model (AM3). Compared to its predecessor AM2, AM3 uses a new treatment 27 of deep and shallow cumulus convection and mesoscale clouds. The AM3 cumulus parameterization is 28 a mass flux-based scheme but also, unlike that in AM2, incorporates subgrid-scale vertical velocit...

[1] A control simulation of the GFDL CM2.1 global coupled GCM, run for 2000 years with its atmospheric composition, solar irradiance, and land cover held fixed at 1860 values, exhibits strong interdecadal and intercentennial modulation of its ENSO behavior. To the extent that such modulation is realistic, it could attach large uncertainties to ENSO metrics diagnosed from centennial and shorter ...

Operational forecasts of the El Niño / Southern Oscillation in the tropical Pacific have been carried out at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction since 1994. The Global Ocean Data Assimilation System, introduced in September 2003, provides initial conditions for the Coupled Forecast System global ocean / atmosphere model. The GODAS system is quasi-global, is based on the GFDL MO...