The Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) is a collaborative effort of the emergency management community facilitated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). SFI was launched so the emergency management community can seek to understand how the world is changing, and how those changes may affect the future of emergency management. Participants in SFI have identified nine drivers that a...

The methodological tool of the technology foresight strategy in innovation activity which is based on the new expert estimation principles and software for processing the results of the foresight under the real conditions are proposed. Obviously, this strategy should determine the main development directions of strategically important industries, the prospects of competitiveness products, the s...

Brower and others have argued that the evolution of mankind might have come to a halt without optimistic illusions. With the emergence of conscious foresight (the ability to imagine one’s future) came the devastating understanding that old age, sickness, decline of mental power, and oblivion await. Varki and Brower reason that this awareness on its own would have interfered with our daily funct...

In an overlapping generations model with Cournot competition on the goods market it is shown that a continuum of stationary states and perfect foresight trajectories exists with unemployment at arbitrary low wages. Decisive for this is the influence that different forecast functions have on the objective demand curve, even though they are consistent with perfect foresight. With an example it is...

Subject of this analysis is to show how storage is operated optimally under renewable and load uncertainty in the electricity system context. We estimate a homogeneous Markov Chain representation of the residual load in Germany in 2014 on an hourly basis and design a very simple dynamic stochastic electricity system model with non-intermittent generation technologies and storage. We compare the...

This paper proposes a perfect foresight model of a two-region two-sector economy, where localized externalities in the acquisition of skills cause specialization and uneven regional development. The introduction of a new technology either reinforces or reverses this development pattern. Wealth differences are reinforced if, in spite of higher wages, the new technology locates in the advanced re...

A fundamental shift in the future of work is underway, with significant implications for the number, location, and types of jobs. This shift is entangled in a wider set of longerterm transitions. The disruptive nature of this shift presents new policy challenges and carries implications for maintaining the social contract. This paper shares recent examples of global Foresight that have been dev...

This paper presents and compares two original techniques for disruptive technology assessment and foresight based on opposite paradigm: a management science approach (Multi-Criteria Decision-Making) versus a Web 2.0 approach (Prediction Market). These approaches are intended to support the management of a technology portfolio and the assessment of new technology by an IT organization. In order ...

The debate about whether or not animals have foresight has focused on whether animals can be shown to have episodic future thinking, that is the ability to travel mentally in time and see themselves in the future. This focus has distracted from consideration of other forms of foresight that animals demonstrate. We propose a framework for examining future-oriented behaviours and then discuss the...

It is well known that requirements changes in a later phase of software developments is a major source of software defects and costs. Thus, the need of techniques to control or reduce the amount of changes during software development projects. We advocate the use of foresight methods as a valuable input to requirements elicitation, with the potential to decrease the number of changes that would...