What return should you expect when you take on a given amount of risk? How should that return depend upon other people’s behaviour? What principles can you use to answer these questions? In this paper, I approach these topics by exploring the consequences of two simple hypotheses about risk. The first is a common-sense invariance principle: assets with the same perceived risk must have the same...

[1] The concept of return period is fundamental for the design and the assessment of many engineering works. In a multivariate framework, several approaches are available to its definition, each one yielding different solutions. In this paper, we outline a theoretical framework for the calculation of return periods in a multidimensional environment, based on survival copulas and the correspondi...

Two aspects of global climate change are particularly relevant to river and coastal flooding: changes in extreme precipitation and changes in sea level. In this paper we summarize the relevant findings of the IPCC Third Assessment Report and illustrate some of the common results found by the current generation of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), using the Hadley Cen...

Today’s low mortgage interest rates make direct real estate investments attractive to individual investors. However, low rates may result in an investor paying too much for the property. Sensitivity analysis conducted on a set of projected financial statements for a direct real estate investment shows the potential impact of changing rates on holding period return. Higher subsequent loan rates ...

This paper deals with the impact of nine categories of scheduled and unscheduled news announcements on the Euro/Dollar return volatility. We highlight and analyze the pre-announcement, contemporaneous and postannouncement reactions. Using high-frequency intraday data and within the framework of ARCH-type and realized volatility models, we show that volatility increases in the pre-announcement p...

The authors gauged the return-generating potential of four investment strategies: value weighted, 60/40 fixed mix, and unlevered and levered risk parity. They report three main findings: (1) Even over periods lasting decades, the start and end dates of a backtest can have a material effect on results; (2) transaction costs can reverse ranking, especially if leverage is used; and (3) a statistic...

This paper deals with the impact of nine categories of scheduled and unscheduled news announcements on the Euro/Dollar return volatility. We highlight and analyze the pre-announcement, contemporaneous and postannouncement reactions. Using high-frequency intraday data and within the framework of ARCH-type and realized volatility models, we show that volatility increases in the pre-announcement p...

Which factors select for long juvenile periods in some species is not well understood. One potential reason to delay the onset of reproduction is slow food acquisition rates, either due to competition (part of the ecological risk avoidance hypothesis), or due to a decreased foraging efficiency (a version of the needing to learn hypothesis). Capuchins provide a useful genus to test the needing t...

This paper will discuss the actual erosion estimation of Patria Nueva micro basin in tons/ha/year (E), located Tuxtla Gutiérrez Chiapas, Mexico. We used universal soil loss equation (USLE), considered one best theoretical tools for planning and preservation USA other countries. The rates were estimated 5, 20, 50, 100, 500 years return periods (Rp), with elevated results due to high degrees anth...