Bayesian statistical models were developed for the number of tropical cyclones and the rate at which these cyclones became hurricanes in the North Atlantic, North and South Indian, and East and West Pacific Oceans. We find that there is small probability that the number of cyclones has increased in the past thirty years. The rate at which these storms become hurricanes appears to be constant. T...

It is frequently stated that 70%–80% of western North Pacific tropical cyclones form ‘‘within the monsoon trough,’’ but without an objective definition of the term. Several definitions are tested here. When the monsoon trough (MT) is defined as the contiguous region where long-term (1988–2010) mean July– November 850-hPa relative vorticity is positive, 73% of all July–November tropical cyclones...

A database was compiled for the period 1980–2005 to assess the threat to life in the conterminous United States from nonconvective high-wind events. This study reveals the number of fatalities from these wind storms, their cause, and their unique spatial distributions. While tornadoes continue to cause the most wind-related fatalities per year, nonconvective high winds (defined as phenomena suc...

[1] Transport of boundary layer air to the free troposphere by cyclones during NASA’s Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) experiment is investigated. Airstreams responsible for boundary layer venting are diagnosed using results from a high-resolution meteorological model (MM5) together with in situ and remotely sensed chemical data. Hourly wind data from the MM5 are used...

One of the multiple approaches currently explored to mitigate the effects of hydro-meteorological hazardous events aims at improving the numerical weather forecasts. Under an ever increasing societal demand for cost cuts and more precise forecasts, targeted observations are currently receiving great attention within the operational weather community. The MEDEX project (http://medex.inm.uib.es) ...

The Adélie Land coastal region of Antarctica is one of the most prominent cyclogenesis regions in the Southern Hemisphere, and is adjacent to the continent’s most intense katabatic wind regime. However, the physical mechanisms responsible for cyclogenesis are not known. A manual analysis of cyclogenesis for the 2003–2005 period using output from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) ...

A large-amplitude mixed Rossby–gravity wave packet is identified in the western Pacific using 6–10-day bandpass-filtered winds. Individual disturbances of 2300–3000-km wavelength propagated westward as the packet moved slowly eastward. The packet first appeared, and subsequently amplified, within a region of active convection associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), which was isolat...

Three common synoptic storm tracks observed throughout the United States are the Alberta Clipper, the Colorado cyclone, and the East Coast storm. Numerous studies have been performed on individual storm tracks analyzing quasigeostrophic dynamics, stability, and moisture profiles in each. This study evaluated storms in each track to help diagnose patterns and magnitudes of the aforementioned qua...

Due to human activities, marine and terrestrial ecosystems face a future where disturbances are predicted to occur at a frequency and severity unprecedented in the recent past. Of particular concern is the ability of systems to recover where multiple stressors act simultaneously. We examine this issue in the context of a coral reef ecosystem where increases in stressors, such as fisheries, bent...

I have four long-term goals. My first goal is to finalize the large body of work already carried out by the PI on the predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) forecast tracks out to 72 hours ahead. My second goal is to apply similar, as well as new, ideas to the predictability of forecast intensity out to 72 hours ahead. My third goal is to carry out observing system simulation experiments (OSSE...