Seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice have typically been based on statistical regression models or on results from ensemble ice model forecasts driven by historical atmospheric forcing. However, in the rapidly changing Arctic environment, the predictability characteristics of summer ice cover could undergo important transformations. Here global coupled climate model simulations are used to as...

Research has shown that contour detection is impaired in the visual periphery for snake-shaped Gabor contours but not for circular and elliptical contours. This discrepancy in findings could be due to differences in intrinsic shape properties, including shape closure and curvature variation, as well as to differences in stimulus predictability and familiarity. In a detection task using only cir...

Based on nonlinear prediction and information theory, vertical heterogeneity of predictability and information loss rate in geopotential height filed was obtained over the Northern Hemisphere. In seasonal to interannual time scales, the predictability is low in lower troposphere and high in mid-upper troposphere. But within mid-upper troposphere over the subtropics in some ocean area there is a...

We consider error propagation near an unstable equilibrium state (classified as an unstable focus) for spatially uncorrelated and correlated finite-amplitude initial perturbations using short(up to several weeks) and intermediate (up to two months) range forecast ensembles produced by a barotropic regional ocean model. An ensemble of initial perturbations is generated by the Latin Hypercube des...

In recent studies it has been shown that temporal predictability of expected events alters processing in perception and action. Yet, the neural mechanism(s) by which temporal predictability biases this processing is to date little understood. Therefore, in the present fMRI study we investigated how temporal predictability affects neural processing in visual cortical areas. For this, thirty-four...

With the growing popularity of location-based social networks, vast amount of user check-in histories have been accumulated. Based on such historical data, predicting a user’s next check-in place is of much interest recently. There is, however, little study on the limit of predictability of this task and its correlation with users’ demographics. These studies can give deeper insight to the pred...

The dynamics and predictability of Stommel's (1961) box model of the thermohaline circulation is studied. This nonlinear model with idealized geometry of the North Atlantic is solved exactly. A phase space analysis of the model reveals that the optimal perturbation a ecting long-term climate variability is provided by high latitude haline forcing in the Atlantic ocean, although this perturbatio...