Nicola De Maio, Chieh-Hsi Wu, Kathleen M O’Reilly, Daniel Wilson 1 Institute for Emerging Infections, Oxford Martin School, Oxford, United Kingdom 2 Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom 3 MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom 4 Wellcome Trust Centre fo...