This paper studies the asymptotic behaviour of an affine stochastic functional differential equation modelling the evolution of the cumulative return of a risky security. In the model, the traders of the security determine their investment strategy by comparing short– and long–run moving averages of the security’s returns. We show that the cumulative returns either obey the Law of the Iterated ...

This paper examines the recent experience with insurance and other risk-financing instruments in developing countries in order to gain insights into the effectiveness of these instruments in reducing economic insecurity. Insurance and other risk financing strategies are viewed as efforts to recover from negative income shocks through risk pooling and transfer. Specific examples of public-privat...

This study tests assertions that Economic Value Added (EVAt) is more highly associated with stock returns and firm values than accrual earnings, and evaluates which components of EVA, if any, contribute to these associations. Relative information content tests reveal earnings to be more highly associated with returns and firm values than EVA, residual income, or cash flow from operations. Incre...

(1) United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)-Agricultural Research Service (ARS), Arthropod-Borne Animal Diseases Research Laboratory, Dept. 3354, 1000 E. University Avenue, Laramie, WY 82071, United States of America (2) Present address: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, NCID/DVRD/Special Pathogens Branch, 1600 Clifton Rd NE, Building 15-SB, Mailstop G14, Atlanta, GA 30333, Uni...

In this article we provide a review of the literature with respect to the e$cient markets hypothesis and chaos. In doing so, we contrast the martingale behavior of asset prices to nonlinear chaotic dynamics, discuss some recent techniques used in distinguishing between probabilistic and deterministic behavior in asset prices, and report some evidence. Moreover, we look at the controversies that...

This paper presents an overview of how single stock futures (SSF) have developed since their introduction in the United States. We present a number of reasons why individual investor interest in SSF may not have reached its potential. Individual investors should note SSF volumes are very low and implied interest rates indicate that SSF settlement prices often have little relation to their respe...

This article examines the performance of 85 UK unit trusts with North American investment objectives between January 1985 and December 1996 using unconditional and conditional performance measures. The paper finds that, on average, the trusts register insignificant performance to each of the respective benchmark portfolios. In addition there is no evidence of any predictability in performance. ...

This paper investigates the effect of different risk attitudes on the financial decisions of two insiders trading in the stock market. We consider a static version of the Kyle (1985) model with two insiders. Insider 1 is risk neutral while insider 2 is risk averse with negative exponential utility. First, we prove the existence of a unique linear equilibrium. Second, we obtain somewhat surprisi...

I analyze annual returns of the S&P 500 from 1993 – 1998. Future returns of the market are predicted using current dividend yield levels, past risk free returns and a standard deviation variable over the preceding five years. Evidence from the article suggests that future returns can be predicted when combing dividend yields with recent volatility in the market. This article suggests that recen...

Using 5-year credit default swap (CDS) contracts on 1,247 U.S. firms from 2003 2011, we show a 3-month formation and 1-month holding period CDS momentum strategy yields 52 bps per month. By incorporating past CDS return signals, we further show traditional stock momentum strategies avoid abrupt losses during the crisis period and improve their performance by net 104 bps per month. Both within C...