Using system dynamics approach to identify factors affecting energy consumption and CO2 emissions in urban transport: A Case Study of Tehran

The current trend of rising energy consumption in the world has hit mankind with two major crises: first, environmental pollution, and second, the acceleration of finishing energy supplies. Energy storage and reduction of pollutants in the city plays a crucial role in the process of maintaining existing energy. Meanwhile, the transportation sector needs attention due to its importance and position, and can annually bring significant amounts of economic savings to the people and governments by reducing energy consumption and adverse environmental effects, and reducing travel time and unwanted delays brought up. Therefore, in the present research, the most important parameters of environmental pollutant emissions in urban transport sector were determined and system dynamics model of Tehran's urban transport was developed. Based on quantitative analysis, six scenarios, Business As Usual, Priority to the Development of Public Transport, Technical Progress, Administrative Rules and Regulations Management, Travel Demand Management and comprehensive policy are evolved. According to the results, CP scenario has the best performance, and by simultaneously implementing the scenarios, each of them will play a role in improving the situation and significantly reducing energy consumption and CO2 emissions.