Simulating Past Dynamics and Assessing Current Status of Markhoz Goat Population on Its Habitat

This study was conducted to collect comprehensive identification about Markhoz goat population and to simulate past dynamics of the population under its living conditions.Census data of the population size and the required parametersfor the simulation modelwere obtained frompublished data or were collected in its habitat in the last 3 years. In this study, past population dynamics and expected loss of genetic diversity in the population were simulated by population viability analysis (PVA) using Vortex modeling program version 10.0.Markhoz breeding goats and population size showed a downward trend on its own habitat. The last known number of breeding does, bucks and total population of the Markhoz goat breed on its habitat were 917, 55 and 1669 heads in 2012. Computed and simulated inbreeding rates (ΔF)were 2.4%and 3.9%, respectively. Simulated Ne for this population was 128 which are near to critical size of 100.Furthermore, the extinction probability (EP) of 0%, stochastic growth rate of -0.1624, losing genetic diversity of 5% and inbreeding of 0.0311 were simulated using the PVA for a past time horizon( from 1996 to 2012). Having considered different parameters and threats with the reliable values and probabilities, PVA model simulated correctly the past period of population dynamics. Based on our findings, 1) future viability and the expected loss of diversity should be estimated under obtained demographic and environmental parameters. 2) different management scenarios should be examined to provide a conservation program.