Forcasting Electricity Losses in Transmission and Distribution Grids: System Dynamics Approach Compared to Econometric Method

In this research, the factors affecting on electricity gap were examined in the electricity industry in Iran using the system dynamics approach compared to the econometric method. In the framework of the electricity gap prediction model, simulation of energy demand were investigated as well as its supply and effective factors. Analysis of the problems with these systems was very complicated because it is a simulated model based on many variables, relationships, and delays between these variables. In this study, the electricity gap was analyzed in light of the supply and demand of energy and considering the market equilibrium price, and the gap value was investigated using a dynamic system model. Also, using a regression analysis and using econometric methods (ARMA and ARIMA modeling), the gap was estimated. The data were used for the years since 1383 to 1393, which was adapted from Iran Energy Balance Sheet. Simulation for a 25-year period for dynamic systems and a 35-year period for a structural model was considered. In these study, the result was that the RMSE criterio for the structural model was 0.015 and for the dynamic model 0.057, and showed that estimating the structural model is more accurate than simulation by dynamic systems. Regarding the results, dynamic modeling was with more error for data estimation and was more suitable for showing the relationship between variables (causal and causal relationships) as well as the effect of each variable on another. Therefore, in order to more accurately estimation the data, structural modeling is more appropriate with regard to the information obtained.