Developing Earthquake Resiliency Scenarios based on Rural-Urban Linkages (Case Study: Shemiranat, Damavand and Firouzkoh)

Linkages in geographical spaces representing a region is not just a functional system which has been formed by various settlements. It rather takes its power from social, economic and physical networks and their interactions which means it is controlled by aforementioned networks. Therefore, there are always rural area and urban area with some relations or linkages. In this regard, relation mostly refers to a communication flow from an urban area to a rural area or vice versa while linkage refers to a double-sided communication flow between these two settlements. This study focuses on linkages and the networks with the characteristic of reciprocal. It is supposed to put an emphasis on just a settlement creates lots of problems while they can improve each other. However, it is believed rural-urban linkages can improve regional resiliency.  The present study uses future studies methodology in order to develop earthquake resiliency scenarios based on rural-urban linkages using scenario wizard. Because of the extent of the study area, samples were selected based on the main aspects of research; earthquake and rural-urban linkages. Thus, by examining of faults zoning maps and historical trend of earthquakes in the study area and also, the most important factors in the field of rural–urban linkages such as second home tourism, immigration with a different purpose, northern and eastern regions were selected as samples. Therefore, Firouzkoh, Damavand, and Shemiranat were studied as three provinces. These samples were selected by chance from 7 districts (Taroud, Abarshive, LavasanKouckand, LavasoalBozorg, Hableroud, Dobolouk, RodbarGhasran) and 26 villages (Mosha, Mara, HesarBala, Hesar pain, Jaban, Khosravan, Sarbandan, Arou, Niknamdeh, kalan, Afje, KandOliya, Mahmod Abad, Hasarin, Amin Abad (HablehRoud), Dehgordan, Bahan, Najafdar, Osour, Tahneh, Garmabdar, Amin Abad (RoudbarGhasran), ShemshakBala, Sefid Dastan, Ahar, AmamehBala). Afterward, indicators of social, economic, institutional and physical resiliency were evaluated to develop earthquake resiliency scenarios. It must be noted that local leaders or rural municipality answered the questions.        Future studies will allow us to plan according to the probable conditions and some evidence. Since we always have different evidence and probable conditions, there are a lot of scenarios for planning. To overcome this challenge, Scenario Wizard was used as a useful tool to reduce various scenarios derived from a 49*49 matrix with 13 factors. In total, there were 2097 scenarios that 40 ones are considered as logical scenarios. The selection was based on 1 consistency. After all, the scenarios were categorized into 3 groups. However, exploring rural-urban linkages have been proof for using them for regional challenges like earthquake resiliency. Although the mentioned linkages have an effect on improving resiliency, the current state showed an inconsistent state. This may be because of the lack of resiliency plans, lack of planning, training and proper notification, and failure in developing a public and private partnership, etc. The results show the advantage of consistent scenarios over inconsistent scenarios. In consequence, these linkages are useful tools for regional planning which can be used for challenging issues. On the other hand, the present condition has a completely different state. In the current condition, the inconsistent state takes advantage of the consistent state. These results prove the importance of regional planning and avoiding separating rural and urban areas in planning.