Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emission to Effective Stimuli in Iran's Manufacturing Sector, Using LMDI Method, During the Years 1999 to 2019

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission due to the fossil fuels combustion in the world's manufacturing industries with a share of 30% of emission is considered as one of the important potentials for GHG emission reduction. In this study, using the logarithmic mean of Division index (LMDI) method, in combination with Kaya model, the factors affecting the emissions of Iranian manufacturing industries, including activity factors, industry structure, energy intensity, fuel composition and emission coefficient during the years 1378 to 1398 is identified and studied. According to the results, the effects of the level of industrial activity is the most important drivers for emissions in the industries of manufacturing factories, so that the amount of emissions has increased from 33.22 million tons in 1378 to 67.35 million tons in 1398. The drivers of the industrial structure acted in the opposite direction and decreased from -3.85 million tons in 1999 to -29.73 million tons. Also, greenhouse gas emission in chemical and petrochemical industries, cement factories and non-ferrous metal products increased by 60.38, 55.29 and 37.9 million tons, respectively. Changes in greenhouse gas emission in the oil and coal refining industries have also been almost constant during the period of this study. JEL Classification: Q51, Q52, Q54, Q56. Keywords: Climate change, Greenhouse gases, Emission in industries, Index analysis method, LMDI method.