بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر رتینوپاتی در بیماران دیابتی نوع 1 با زمان تشخیص کمتر از 30 سال، به روش تحلیل بیزی رگرسیون دو متغیره ترتیبی تجمعی

  R Gharaagaji Asl [1] , Ph.D S Fagihzadeh [2] , Ph.D M R Meshkani [3] , Ph.D A Kazemnejad [4] , Ph.DGR Babayi [5] , Ph.D R Rohipor [6] , M.D MF Mosavi [7] , M.D    Received: 24 Oct, 2007 Accepted: 30 Jan, 2008 Abstract  Background &Aims : Diabetes is one of the chronic and non-communicable diseases with increasing prevalence. Retinopathy mostly appears in diabetic type I. Diabetic retinopathy is one of its complications leading to low vision and blindness. Determining effective factors can help us in early diagnosis and controlling the progression of diabetic retinopathy.  Material &Methods : This study is a cross-sectional one being done on 116 patients (diabetic type I). Their diagnoses age was under 30 years. They referred to optical clinic of Farabi hospital. The samples were randomly selected the presence and severity of any diabetic retinopathy was examined in both eyes separately and classified into four classes as follows: none mild severe and moderate and proliferative. Finally covariate variables were collected for each patient considering the clinical visits, patient self report or patient's hospital records. Results: Retinopathy severity for the left eye was: normal (45.6%), mild (30.2%), severe and moderate (15.51%) and proliferative (8.6%) and for the right eye was: normal (%42.24), mild (31.03%), severe and moderate (17.24%) and proliferative (9.48%). The retinopathy severity correlation between two eyes was statistically significant (P<0.0001, r =0.701). Analysis of effective causes showed that the variables such as: diseases long duration, age of diagnosis, DHTN, sex, BMI, dose of insulin per day, proteinuria and macular edema had significant relation with diseases severity and pulse rate, residence, refractive error and intra-ocular pressure have not significant relation with diseases severity.  Conclusion : This study shows that poor control, being a durable disease, being male, DHTN, BMI, dose of insulin, proteinuria, macular edema in diabetic type 1 are effective factors on retinopathy. Controlling the systematic factors, effective variables and systematic clinical visits by specialists in internal medicine and eye physicians are helpful for predicting retinopathy incidence and recurrence.   Keywords: Diabetes type I, Diabetic retinopathy, Effective variables, Bayesian analysis, Cumulative regression     Address: Biostatistics Department, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran Tel: 021-88011001     E-mail: [email protected]     Source: UMJ 2008: 19(4): 364 ISSN: 1027-3727   [1] PhD Student of Biostatistics, Tarbiat Modares University   [2] Professor of Biostatistics, Tarbiat Modares University(Corresponding Author)  [3] Professor of Statistics, Shahid Beheshti University  [4] Associate of Biostatistics, Tarbiat Modares University  [5] Associate Professor of Biostatistics, Tarbiat Modares University  [6] Assistant Professor of Ophthalmology, Farabi Hospital, Tehran University of Medical sciences  [7] Resident of Ophthalmoloy, Farabi Hospital, Tehran University of Medical sciences