UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF STABILITY OF GRAVITY DAMS USING THE FUZZY SET THEORY

This paper introduces a methodology for considering the uncertainties in stability analysis of gravity dams. For this purpose, a conceptual model based on the fuzzy set theory and Genetic Algorithm (GA) optimization is developed to be coupled to a gravity dam analysis model. The uncertainties are represented by the fuzzy numbers and the GA is used to estimate in what extent the input uncertainties affect the dam safety factors. An example gravity dam is analyzed using the proposed approach. The results show that the crisp safety factors might be highly affected by the input uncertainties. For instance, ±10%uncertainty in the design parameters could result in about −346 to + 146 % uncertainty in the stability safety factors and −59 to + 134 % in the stress safety factor of the example dam.