Simulation and Evaluation of Urban Development Scenarios Using Integration of Cellular Automata Model and Game Theory

Urban growth is a dynamic and evolutionary spatial and social process that relates to the changes of urban spatial units and the transformation of people’s lifestyles and consequently demographic changes. Considering the urban development process as a function of land uses interactions, population structure and the strategic behavior of the agents involved in the urban development process (the Developer as the investor and the Municipality as the planner and regulator), asking for developing a framework to capable modeling and analyzing these driving actors. This study is presented a model based on the integration of cellular automata, multi-criteria analysis and agent-based Game theory for land use planning and simulation of urban development using two urban population changing scenarios. This integration is used as a tool for modeling and quantifying land uses interactions with respect to their service region. Moreover, in the proposed model, land-use type change is defined as the outcome of the interaction between two decision-makers (agent): Developer and Municipality. Game theory is used to model and quantify the strategic behavior of these two agents. The developer’s strategy is to develop spatial units that have more suitability due to their neighborhood externalities and current demand for each land use type while the municipality’s strategy is to protect the zoning regulations based on the master plan and land use suitability. The utility functions are defined based on each agents’ preferences, the game structure for each spatial unit is composed based on developer priorities (as proposer) and the bargaining situation between agents involved in the development process (as a sequential game) is solved using backward induction process. Utilizing Game theory will result in finding an optimal and rational strategy for both agents in developing land-use types for each permissible spatial unit. The methodology presented in this study proposes a rational and realistic approach for urban land use planning and simulating urban growth. To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, it was implemented in the region of Roozieh in the city of Semnan. Two scenarios were modeled based on the Semnan’s approved master plan. The suitability of developed land-use types is evaluated using multi-criteria analysis. In order to provide a more efficient evaluation method, the outcome of the implementation of each scenario using the proposed method was evaluated to provide a basis for comparing results based on the concept of spatial equity. The results demonstrate the ability of the model to simulate the outcome of urban land-use development plans based on the regulations and guidelines of the master plan, especially for the balanced distribution of services and service availability.