River Discharge Time Series Prediction by Chaos Theory
Authors
Abstract:
The application of chaos theory in hydrology has been gaining considerable interest in recent years.Based on the chaos theory, the random seemingly series can be attributed to deterministic rules. Thedynamic structures of the seemingly complex processes, such as river flow variations, might be betterunderstood using nonlinear deterministic chaotic models than the stochastic ones. In this paper,chaotic behavior of the daily river discharge time series from the BarandozChay, fromSeptember,1983to August, 2009 is investigated. To reconstruct phase space, the time delay and embedding dimensionare needed and for this purpose, Average Mutual Information (AMI) and algorithm of False NearestNeighbors (FNN) wereused. Correlation Dimension method was applied for investigating chaoticbehavior of daily discharge. The delay time and optimum-embedding dimension were obtained 66 and4 respectively. The low amount of correlation dimension (d=3.1) represents the chaotic behavior ofBarandoz river discharge time series.
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Journal title
volume 2 issue 6
pages 77- 89
publication date 2012-12-21
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