Reliability of Identification of Seniors at Risk Screening Tool in Predicting Functional and Mental Decline in Discharged Elderly Patients

Introduction: Emergency wards today are facing with an increasing numbers of older patients. Therefore, it seems important and essential to develop a short screening tool with an acceptable predictive power to identify the seniors being discharged from hospital and mean while are at risk of a decline in physical and mental performance, and thus, facing re-admission emergency wards in hospitals.   Methods: This prospective study was performed on 190 randomly selected elderly people being discharged from emergency centers in Sabzevar city. Data were collected using Identification of Seniors at Risk (ISAR), GHQ-12 and Barthel questionnaires. Descriptive and inferential statistical methods including Pearson correlation coefficient and area under the ROC curve were used for data analysis.   Results: Within the six months period of follow up,  the accuracy of ISAR tool for predicting functional and mental performance decline was at a moderate level (AUC = 0.74 , AUC = 0.77 ) but at desirable level for both physical and mental performances, as a whole condition (AUC = 0.84). Conclusion: ISAR has moderate accuracy to predict the risk of physical or mental decline in elderly people six months after discharge from hospital emergency wards.