Re-configuration of the Relief Network Considering Uncertain Demand and Link Failure in an Earthquake: A Multi-stage Stochastic Programming

Disasters inevitably trigger far-reaching consequences affecting all living things and the environment.  Therefore, top managers and decision-makers in disaster management seek comprehensive approaches to evaluate facilities and network preparedness in dealing with the response phase of predicted disaster scenarios in terms of number of casualties, costs, and unmet demands.  In this regard, previous studies on the preparedness phase have often been limited to the location of eligible facilities without considering other important factors such as current assets, entities and configuration.  Thus, the present study proposes a reconfiguring and repositioning model in order to simultaneously assess whether existing support bases should remain, be consolidated or phased out as well as whether new support base facilities should be established and subsequently supply and demand requirements considered.  In the proposed model, in addition to considering a scenario tree for destruction and demands, network links affected by the intensity of disaster events are also evaluated.  Furthermore, in order to increase reliability, the destruction of network links takes into account that link failures give rise to vulnerability in related links.  In the proposed model, multi-stage stochastic programming has been implemented on various real destruction and demand scenarios.  The results indicate definite advantages in the re-positioning or reconfiguring model compared with current configurations.  Moreover, the superior capability of the applied solving approach versus one of the traditional approaches is also appraised.