Quantifying the Impact of Eliminating Oil Revenue on Oil Exporters' Macroeconomy
Authors
Abstract:
The sudden drop in crude oil prices during the Coronavirus pandemic, once again rises the concern about oil countries future if oil diminishes. This paper uses a multi-country general equilibrium model to project the effects of eliminating oil revenues. The model consists of 5 oil exporters (i.e., Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan and Russia), 25 non-oil exporting countries, and the rest of the world. The oil income is modeled as a capital flow, which allows a surplus in capital account for the oil exporters and balances the current account deficits. The results show that, when oil revenue diminishes, relative GDPs, welfares, aggregate price indexes and manufacturing price indexes reduce; though, manufacturing share increases in all of the 5 oil countries. Specifically, Iran`s GDP falls by 15 percent (relative to the world) and the real welfare falls by 13 percent. Our results projects and quantifies the very difficult economic condition arises by oil income elimination.
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Journal title
volume 29 issue 97
pages 61- 100
publication date 2021-06
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