Proposing A stochastic model for spread of corona virus dynamics in Nigeria
author
Abstract:
The emergence of corona virus (COVID-19) has create a great public concern as the outbreak is still ongoing and government are taking actions such as holiday extension, travel restriction, temporary closure of public work place, borders, schools, quarantine/isolation, social distancing and so on. To mitigate the spread, we proposed and analyzed a stochastic model for the continue spread of corona virus (COVID-19) dynamics considering the impact of vaccination among susceptible, exposed and quarantine cases. The difference and differential-difference equations for the dynamics of (COVID-19) were derived and simulated with available parameters using stochastic simulation (Gillespie Algorithm). The study adopts Continues–Time Birth and Death stochastic process and the probability distribution describing the dynamics of coronavirus was derived and simulated which shows an exponential decay over time. As the time increase, the probability of coronavirus incidents decline to zero. We therefore conclude that vaccination has an impact of 20% among susceptible, exposed and quarantine cases.
similar resources
Prediction of the spread of Corona-virus carrying droplets in a metro wagon - A computational based artificial intelligence approach
Assessing the risk of transmitting the corona virus is important for protecting public health under the COVID-19 epidemic. Public transportation such as bus and metro wagon, are the most important source of COVID 19 dispersion. In the last decade, numerical simulation plays important roles in predicting. In this case study, by a combination of numerical simulation and artificial intelligence, t...
full textinvestigating the feasibility of a proposed model for geometric design of deployable arch structures
deployable scissor type structures are composed of the so-called scissor-like elements (sles), which are connected to each other at an intermediate point through a pivotal connection and allow them to be folded into a compact bundle for storage or transport. several sles are connected to each other in order to form units with regular polygonal plan views. the sides and radii of the polygons are...
A MODEL FOR EVOLUTIONARY DYNAMICS OF WORDS IN A LANGUAGE
Human language, over its evolutionary history, has emerged as one of the fundamental defining characteristic of the modern man. However, this milestone evolutionary process through natural selection has not left any ’linguistic fossils’ that may enable us to trace back the actual course of development of language and its establishment in human societies. Lacking analytical tools to fathom the cr...
full textStochastic cellular automata model for wildland fire spread dynamics
A stochastic cellular automata model for wildland fire spread under flat terrain and no-wind conditions is proposed and its dynamics is characterized and analyzed. One of three possible states characterizes each cell: vegetation cell, burning cell and burnt cell. The dynamics of fire spread is modeled as a stochastic event with an effective fire spread probability S which is a function of three...
full textan application of equilibrium model for crude oil tanker ships insurance futures in iran
با توجه به تحریم های بین المملی علیه صنعت بیمه ایران امکان استفاده از بازارهای بین المملی بیمه ای برای نفتکش های ایرانی وجود ندارد. از طرفی از آنجایی که یکی از نوآوری های اخیر استفاده از بازارهای مالی به منظور ریسک های فاجعه آمیز می باشد. از اینرو در این پایان نامه سعی شده است با استفاده از این نوآوری ها با طراحی اوراق اختیارات راهی نو جهت بیمه گردن نفت کش های ایرانی ارائه نمود. از آنجایی که بر...
My Resources
Journal title
volume 10 issue 2 (SPRING)
pages 133- 140
publication date 2020-06-01
By following a journal you will be notified via email when a new issue of this journal is published.
Hosted on Doprax cloud platform doprax.com
copyright © 2015-2023