Predicting land subsidence rate due to groundwater exploitation in the district 19 of Tehran using MODFLOW and InSAR

During recent years, groundwater exploitation and thereby decreasing hydraulic head in the compressible sedimentary aquifer which is placed in the district 19 of Tehran have been caused noticeable land subsidence. The land subsidence has been damaging the infrastructures which have been being built in the south of Tehran Basin, especially in the district 19 of Tehran. A finite-difference groundwater flow model (MODFLOW) and a synthetic aperture radar (SAR) method have been used to estimate and predict the rate of land subsidence in this area, and help hydrogeologists manage the vital groundwater resource correctly. The data have been imported into the model, and the change of the amount of land subsidence and head have been obtained for 39 years. Then the available radar images have been processed. Afterwards, the head calibration and subsidence calibration have been done. The results of the calibrations confirmed the accuracy of the results obtained by the model. Finally, this study suggests that 118 mm of land subsidence and an 11.6 m piezometric head decline are likely to occur from 2014 until 2043.