Modified Maximum Likelihood Estimation in First-Order Autoregressive Moving Average Models with some Non-Normal Residuals

Authors

  • Maryam Kasraie Science and Research branch, Islamic Azad University,Tehran, Iran
Abstract:

When modeling time series data using autoregressive-moving average processes, it is a common practice to presume that the residuals are normally distributed. However, sometimes we encounter non-normal residuals and asymmetry of data marginal distribution. Despite widespread use of pure autoregressive processes for modeling non-normal time series, the autoregressive-moving average models have less been used. The main reason is the difficulty in estimating the autoregressive-moving average model parameters. The purpose of this study is to address this intricacy by approximating maximum likelihood estimators, which is particularly important from model selection perspective. Accordingly, the coefficients and residual distribution parameters of the first-order stationary autoregressive-moving average model with residuals that follow exponential and Weibull families, were estimated. Then based on the simulation study, the obtained theoretical results were investigated and it was shown that the modified maximum likelihood estimators were suitable estimators to estimate the first-order autoregressive-moving average model parameters in non-normal mode. In a numerical example positive skewness of obtained residuals from fitting the first-order autoregressive-moving average model was shown. Following that, the parameters of candidate residual distributions estimated by modified maxim-um likelihood estimators and one of the estimated models for modeling the data was selected.

Upgrade to premium to download articles

Sign up to access the full text

Already have an account?login

similar resources

Conditional Maximum Likelihood Estimation of the First-Order Spatial Integer-Valued Autoregressive (SINAR(1,1)) Model

‎Recently a first-order Spatial Integer-valued Autoregressive‎ ‎SINAR(1,1) model was introduced to model spatial data that comes‎ ‎in counts citep{ghodsi2012}‎. ‎Some properties of this model‎ ‎have been established and the Yule-Walker estimator has been‎ ‎proposed for this model‎. ‎In this paper‎, ‎we introduce the...

full text

Computational aspects of maximum likelihood estimation of autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average models

We discuss computational aspects of likelihood-based estimation of univariate ARFIMA(p, d, q) models. We show how efficient computation and simulation is feasible, even for large samples. We also discuss the implementation of analytical bias corrections.

full text

Statistical Inference in Autoregressive Models with Non-negative Residuals

Normal residual is one of the usual assumptions of autoregressive models but in practice sometimes we are faced with non-negative residuals case. In this paper we consider some autoregressive models with non-negative residuals as competing models and we have derived the maximum likelihood estimators of parameters based on the modified approach and EM algorithm for the competing models. Also,...

full text

Change Point Estimation of the Stationary State in Auto Regressive Moving Average Models, Using Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Singular Value Decomposition-based Filtering

In this paper, for the first time, the subject of change point estimation has been utilized in the stationary state of auto regressive moving average (ARMA) (1, 1). In the monitoring phase, in case the features of the question pursue a time series, i.e., ARMA(1,1), on the basis of the maximum likelihood technique, an approach will be developed for the estimation of the stationary state’s change...

full text

Rank-Based Estimation for Autoregressive Moving Average Time Series Models

We establish asymptotic normality and consistency for rank-based estimators of autoregressive-moving average model parameters. The estimators are obtained by minimizing a rank-based residual dispersion function similar to the one given in L.A. Jaeckel [Estimating regression coefficients by minimizing the dispersion of the residuals, Ann. Math. Statist. 43 (1972) 1449–1458]. These estimators can...

full text

My Resources

Save resource for easier access later

Save to my library Already added to my library

{@ msg_add @}


Journal title

volume 19  issue 2

pages  33- 66

publication date 2020-12

By following a journal you will be notified via email when a new issue of this journal is published.

Keywords

Hosted on Doprax cloud platform doprax.com

copyright © 2015-2023