Genetic diversity within the Iranian spiny-tailed lizards and predicting species distribution in climate change conditions

There are different methods to investigate the effects of climatic fluctuations on the biota, two of which, molecular phylogeography and SDM, are the most useful tools to trace the past climate induced modifications on species’ geographic distributions. In this study, seven samples were collected from the species distribution range in Iran for the purpose of measuring the genetic variation within the Iranian spiny-tailed lizards, using cytochrome b. SDM was carried out by 41 presence points and bioclimatic variables for the present and future climatic conditions (by the year 2050), employing the statistical package ‘sdm’ in order to implement the ensemble model. The results of genetic analyses revealed that the specimens from Bastak in Hormozgan Province are distinguishable from all other specimens. Haplotype diversity was calculated as 0.8. The haplotype network illustrated that the central haplotype is located in the central Iranian Plateau. Moreover, the ensemble model predicted that, while the suitable habitats of this species were found to be in the south of Iran and the Iranian Central Plateau in the present climatic conditions, there will be a decrease in the extent of these patches and Baluchistan will be added as a suitable habitat in 2050. Generally, both genetic studies and modeling predictions suggested that the western and southern specimens (Bastak in Hormozgan) were divided according to the separation of their habitats. In addition, based on modeling scenarios in the future, the optimal habitat for the species is located in the central haplotype area.