Estimating Probable Maximum Precipitation Based on Synoptic Method in Ghomrood Basin

Probable maximum precipitation (PMP), is the highest rainfall, which occurs at a given time in a basin. Hydrologist calculates the probable maximum flood for the design of overflow dams, by using the PMP, with two methods: statistical and synoptic. The purpose of this study is calculating PMP in the Ghomrood basin by using the synoptic method. For this purpose rain, meteorological data of the Iran’s Meteorological Organization were used. Also, the data on the 850 and 500 hPa levels were analyzed by the National Center for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR). In the following, the required synoptic maps produced and were studied. Iso rain maps were drawn, and depth-area-duration curves were determined. Eventually, PMP was estimated at 24, 48 and 72 hours. So that 24 hours PMP, by calculating 50 and 100 years return period of dew point estimated 51/75 and 54 mm respectively. Also for 48 hours PMP 128/25 and 132/05 mm, and for 72 hours PMP 97/9 and 101/75 estimated.