A Model for Predicting Hospitalized Children Appropriate for Early Discharge during Disasters

Background: Early Discharge is one of the most well-known strategies to increase the hospital capacity during disasters. The key issue in applying this strategy is recognizing the patients appropriate for early discharge. Therefore, the current study was conducted to estimate a model for predicting hospitalized children appropriate for early discharge during disasters based on the attending physician’s opinion. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted among 210 child patients hospitalized in the emergency and pediatrics wards of hospitals covered by Mashhad University of Medical Sciences. A researcher-made questionnaire was used to collect data. Questionnaires were completed at the patient's bedside by a trained questioner. The logistic regression was used to analyze the data. Results: Five variables, including consciousness level (OR=4.677), dehydration status (2.596), ability to take milk/swallow (OR=1.930), blood oxygen saturation level (OR=1.186) and body temperature (OR=0.530) were determined as predictors for children appropriate for early discharge during disasters.  The area under the ROC curve was calculated to be 0.848, which indicates a good curve fitting of the estimated model.      Conclusion: The model presented in the current study can help clinical staff for recognizing hospitalized children appropriate for early discharge during disasters.