system dynamics approach for construction risk analysis
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abstract
presence of risks and uncertainties inherent in project development and implementation playssignificant role in poor project performance. thus, there is a considerable need to have an effective riskanalysis approach in order to assess the impact of different risks on the project objectives. a powerful riskanalysis approach may consider dynamic nature of risks throughout the life cycle of the project, as well asaccounting for feedback loops affecting the overall risk impacts. this paper presents a new approach toconstruction risk analysis in which these major influences are considered and quantified explicitly. theproposed methodology is a system dynamics based approach in which different risks may efficiently bemodeled, simulated and quantified in terms of time, cost and quality by the use of the implemented objectoriented simulation methodology. to evaluate the performance of the proposed methodology it has beenemployed in a bridge construction project. due to the space limitations, the modeling and quantificationprocess for one of the identified risks namely “pressure to crash project duration” is explained in detail.
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Journal title:
international journal of civil engineeringجلد ۶، شماره ۲، صفحات ۱۲۰-۱۳۱
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