Volcanism, impact and mass extinctions: incredible or credible coincidences?

Massive continental volcanism and/or bolide impacts are considered by many authors to have caused three major mass extinction events during the last 300 million years: the end-Permian, end-Cretaceous and end-Triassic extinctions. However, reevaluation of the frequency of bolide impacts and plume-related flood basalt provinces indicates that both types of event occur much more frequently than mass extinctions, and so, in isolation, may not be responsible for the largest extinctions. Furthermore, the kill mechanisms associated with either flood basalts or impacts do not appear to be sufficiently powerful to cause worldwide collapse of ecosystems leading to the largest mass extinctions. Contemporaneous flood basalts and bolide impact may be prerequisites for the largest mass extinctions. We present a statistical analysis of the probability of coincidence between volcanism and impact, and show that three random coincidences of these events in the last 300 m.y. are likely. No causal relationship between impact and volcanism is necessary. The lesser mass extinctions, on the other hand, may not require juxtaposition of two such catastrophic events; such coincidences occurring on more than three occasions during the last 300 m.y. become increasingly unlikely. D 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.