A Strategic and Tactical Tool for ATFM Planning based on Statistics and Probability Theory

This paper presents a novel approach based on statistics and probability theory to improve Air Traffic Flow Management (ATFM) efficiency. This tool allows air traffic controllers to organize a more efficient air traffic flow pattern for strategic and tactical planning. Firstly, a procedure to establish a strategic arrival schedule is developed. An implicit feature of this probabilistic procedure is that it takes into account the uncertainty in the arrival and departure times at a given airport. The methodology has been applied at Glasgow International Airport to design a strategic schedule that reduces either the probability of conflict of the arrivals or the length of the landing slots necessitated by flights. The benefits that are expected through the application of this methodology are a reduction of airborne delays and/or an increase of the airport capacity. Thus a safer and more efficient system is achieved. Finally, a tactical arrival schedule is presented. This tool is designed to allow air traffic controllers to organise an air traffic flow pattern using a ground holding strategy. During the daily planning of air traffic flow unpredictable events such as adverse weather conditions and system failures occur, necessitating airborne and ground-hold delays. These delays are used by controllers as a means of avoiding 4D-status conflicts. Of the two methods, ground hold delays are preferred because they are safer, less expensive and cause even less pollution. In this paper a method of estimating the duration of a ground-hold for a given flight is developed. The proposed method is novel in the use of a real time stochastic analysis. The method is demonstrated using Glasgow International Airport. The results presented show how a ground hold policy at a departure airport can increase capacity and minimise conflicts at a destination airport.