A cross-nested logit choice model of joint travel mode and departure time choice for urban commuting trips: case study in Maryland-Washington, DC Region

The aim of this paper is to contribute to describe the simultaneous choice of travel mode and 1 departure time by making use of a cross-nested logit structure that allows for the joint representation of 2 inter-alternative correlation along the both choice dimensions. Traditional multinomial logit model and 3 nested logit model are formulated respectively. The analysis uses the Revealed Preference (RP) data 4 collected from Maryland-Washington, DC Regional Household Travel Survey in 2007-2008 for 5 commuting trips, considering more work-related characteristics than previous studies. A comparison of 6 the different model results shows that the presented cross-nested logit structure offers significant 7 improvements over multinomial logit and nested logit models. The empirical results of the analysis 8 reveal significant influences on commuter joint choice behavior of travel mode and departure time. 9 Moreover, a Monte Carlo simulation for two groups of scenarios arising from transportation policies, 10 congestion-pricing and improvements to transit service during peak period, is undertaken respectively 11 to examine the impact of a change in car travel cost and transit travel time on the travel mode and 12 departure time switching. The simulation results show that five dollars increase in car travel cost during 13 peak period has a similar effect on reducing drive alone in peak hours as 30% saving in transit travel 14 time, but only half of the latter policy in the transit ridership increase. 15