Interannual hydroclimatic variability and its influence on winter nutrient loadings over the Southeast United States
نویسندگان
چکیده
It is well established in the hydroclimatic literature that the interannual variability in seasonal streamflow could be partially explained using climatic precursors such as tropical sea surface temperature (SST) conditions. Similarly, it is widely known that streamflow is the most important predictor in estimating nutrient loadings and the associated concentration. The intent of this study is to bridge these two findings so that nutrient loadings could be predicted using season-ahead climate forecasts forced with forecasted SSTs. By selecting 18 relatively undeveloped basins in the Southeast US (SEUS), we relate winter (January-February-March, JFM) precipitation forecasts that influence the JFM streamflow over the basin to develop winter forecasts of nutrient loadings. For this purpose, we consider two different types of low-dimensional statistical models to predict 3-month ahead nutrient loadings based on retrospective climate forecasts. Split sample validation of the predictive models shows that 18–45 % of interannual variability in observed winter nutrient loadings could be predicted even before the beginning of the season for at least 8 stations. Stations that have very high coefficient of determination (> 0.8) in predicting the observed water quality network (WQN) loadings during JFM exhibit significant skill in predicting seasonal total nitrogen (TN) loadings using climate forecasts. Incorporating antecedent flow conditions (December flow) as an additional predictor did not increase the explained variance in these stations, but substantially reduced the root-mean-square error (RMSE) in the predicted loadings. Relating the dominant mode of winter nutrient loadings over 18 stations clearly illustrates the association with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions. Potential utility of these season-ahead nutrient predictions in developing proactive and adaptive nutrient management strategies is also discussed.
منابع مشابه
Interannual Variability of the Cyclonic Activity along the U.S. Pacific Coast: Influences on the Characteristics of Winter Precipitation in the Western United States
This study examines the observed interannual variability of the cyclonic activity along the U.S. Pacific coast and quantifies its impact on the characteristics of both the winter total and extreme precipitation in the western United States. A cyclonic activity function (CAF) was derived from a dataset of objectively identified cyclone tracks in 27 winters (1979/80–2005/06). The leading empirica...
متن کاملNorth American gross primary productivity: regional characterization and interannual variability
Seasonality and interannual variability in North American photosynthetic activity reflect potential patterns of climate variability. We simulate 24 yr (1983–2006) and evaluate regional and seasonal contribution to annual mean gross primary productivity (GPP) as well as its interannual variability. The highest productivity occurs in Mexico, the southeast United States and the Pacific Northwest. ...
متن کامل1,500 year quantitative reconstruction of winter precipitation in the Pacific Northwest.
Multiple paleoclimate proxies are required for robust assessment of past hydroclimatic conditions. Currently, estimates of drought variability over the past several thousand years are based largely on tree-ring records. We produced a 1,500-y record of winter precipitation in the Pacific Northwest using a physical model-based analysis of lake sediment oxygen isotope data. Our results indicate th...
متن کاملLittle Ice Age climatic erraticism as an analogue for future enhanced hydroclimatic variability across the American Southwest
The American Southwest has experienced a series of severe droughts interspersed with strong wet episodes over the past decades, prompting questions about future climate patterns and potential intensification of weather disruptions under warming conditions. Here we show that interannual hydroclimatic variability in this region has displayed a significant level of non-stationarity over the past m...
متن کاملPacific North American circulation pattern links external forcing and North American hydroclimatic change over the past millennium.
Land and sea surface temperatures, precipitation, and storm tracks in North America and the North Pacific are controlled to a large degree by atmospheric variability associated with the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern. The modern instrumental record indicates a trend toward a positive PNA phase in recent decades, which has led to accelerated warming and snowpack decline in northwestern Nor...
متن کامل