Estimating Habit Formation in Voting∗

We estimate habit formation in voting—the effect of past on current turnout—by exploiting transitory voting cost shocks. Using county-level data on U.S. presidential elections from 1952-2012, we find that precipitation on current and past election days reduces voter turnout. Our estimates imply that a 1-point decrease in past turnout lowers current turnout by 0.7-0.9 points. Further analyses suggest that habit formation operates by reinforcing the direct consumption value of voting and that our estimates may be amplified by social spillovers. ∗We thank Ethan Kaplan, Ilyana Kuziemko, Doug Miller, Stefano DellaVigna, and seminar participants at Columbia University, Princeton University, UC Berkeley, UC Davis, UCLA, UCSD, and University of Toronto for comments; James Campbell, Wolfram Schlenker, and James Snyder for sharing data; and Sarah Weltman for excellent research assistance. †Princeton University, BREAD, CIFAR, and NBER. E-mail: [email protected] ‡UC Santa Barbara. E-mail: [email protected] §Princeton University, BREAD, and NBER. E-mail: [email protected]