Assessing the Efficacy of Adjustable Moving Averages Using ASEAN-5 Currencies
نویسندگان
چکیده
The objective of this research is to examine the trends in the exchange rate markets of the ASEAN-5 countries (Indonesia (IDR), Malaysia (MYR), the Philippines (PHP), Singapore (SGD), and Thailand (THB)) through the application of dynamic moving average trading systems. This research offers evidence of the usefulness of the time-varying volatility technical analysis indicator, Adjustable Moving Average (AMA') in deciphering trends in these ASEAN-5 exchange rate markets. This time-varying volatility factor, referred to as the Efficacy Ratio in this paper, is embedded in AMA'. The Efficacy Ratio adjusts the AMA' to the prevailing market conditions by avoiding whipsaws (losses due, in part, to acting on wrong trading signals, which generally occur when there is no general direction in the market) in range trading and by entering early into new trends in trend trading. The efficacy of AMA' is assessed against other popular moving-average rules. Based on the January 2005 to December 2014 dataset, our findings show that the moving averages and AMA' are superior to the passive buy-and-hold strategy. Specifically, AMA' outperforms the other models for the United States Dollar against PHP (USD/PHP) and USD/THB currency pairs. The results show that different length moving averages perform better in different periods for the five currencies. This is consistent with our hypothesis that a dynamic adjustable technical indicator is needed to cater for different periods in different markets.
منابع مشابه
The Effectiveness of Macroeconomic Variables on Foreign Exchange Market
This study investigates the effects of macroeconomic variables and their role in development of foreign exchange market. The foreign exchange market is the mechanism by which a person of firm transfers purchasing power form one country to another, obtains or provides credit for international trade transactions, and minimizes exposure to foreign exchange risk. The foreign exchange transaction i...
متن کاملThe Effectiveness of Macroeconomic Variables on Foreign Exchange Market
This study investigates the effects of macroeconomic variables and their role in development of foreign exchange market. The foreign exchange market is the mechanism by which a person of firm transfers purchasing power form one country to another, obtains or provides credit for international trade transactions, and minimizes exposure to foreign exchange risk. The foreign exchange transaction i...
متن کاملA dynamic index for managed currenciesfunds using CME currency contracts
The goal of this paper is to equip the investor with the tools and understanding necessary to evaluate managed currencies’ investments in a meaningful way. It is shown that managed currency funds might exhibit a common factor because most of the trading managers use similar technical forecasts to trigger their positions in the financial markets. Therefore, a dynamic benchmark is built, based on...
متن کاملInterdependence of income between China and ASEAN‐5 countries
Purpose – The purpose of the paper is to empirically examine the interdependence of income between China and ASEAN-5 countries by using the real gross domestic product (GDP). Besides answering this important policy question, the paper is also concerned with ascertaining the causal direction between China and the ASEAN-5 income. Design/methodology/approach – The paper resorts to the standard tim...
متن کاملThe Effectiveness of Macroeconomic Variables on Foreign Exchange Market
This study investigates the effects of macroeconomic variables and their role in development of foreign exchange market. The foreign exchange market is the mechanism by which a person of firm transfers purchasing power form one country to another, obtains or provides credit for international trade transactions, and minimizes exposure to foreign exchange risk. The foreign exchange transaction i...
متن کامل