Climate change, land use patterns and deforestation in Brazil
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper aims at evaluating the impacts of climate change on land use patterns in Brazil. To this purpose, we specify and estimate an econometric land use model to assess how climate variables affect land allocation decisions according to three types of use: cropland, pasture and forestland. Based on the econometric model estimates, we then simulate how farmers will adapt their land use choices to future climate scenarios. Climate projections are based on a regional climate model which provides data on future temperature and precipitation at a 50 km horizontal resolution for the Brazilian territory. Simulation results suggest that climate change may induce a significant conversion of forest to pastureland and this conversion pattern may increase the deforestation pressure in the Amazon region. Moreover, the spatial differences in climate change are likely to imply a heterogeneous pattern of land use responses that vary by region.
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