Confidence in real-time forecasting of morphological storm impacts
نویسندگان
چکیده
Baart, F and van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M and van Koningsveld, M. 2011 Confidence in real-time forecasting of morphological storm impacts. Journal of Coastal Research, SI 64 (Proceedings of the 11th International Coastal Symposium), – . Szczecin, Poland, ISSN 0749-0208 Previous studies have expanded warning systems for coastal predictions with information on coastal morphology. Here we present the methodological choices for creating confidence intervals around the morphological forecasts. Three different methods (based on ensembles, hydrodynamic forecast errors and morphodynamic forecast errors) are compared based on required computation time, assumptions and data requirement for the operational forecasting system at the study site of Egmond, the Netherlands. The assumptions on the stochastic nature of the processes and the assumptions about error sources determine the practical applicability of a method. ADDITIONAL INDEX WORDS: Morphodynamic, operational forecast, warning system, methodology,
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