Time-Geographical approaches to Emergence and Sustainable Societies (TiGrESS)

Government plans for the economic development of South East England include large scale commercial, housing and industrial development. Essentially shifting major growth to the north and east, exploiting the Thames gateway and developing east to west infrastructure. Water resources are already believed to be under pressure in this region from the impacts of climate change and competing demands for water. Many areas of South East England are thought by the Environment Agency (2001) to have an unsustainable or unacceptable abstraction routine in regards to both ground and surface water which means that far from being able to develop more supplies, current water supplies are at a maximum. One of the areas selected by the Government for intensive development is the M11 Corridor running from North East London to the city of Cambridge. This area has sustained substantial economic growth over the past decade and is home to significant numbers of biotechnology, life sciences and Software companies. This increase in economic growth and the increased use of Stansted airport is set to continue. Recent housing pressures have become intense with a decrease in affordable housing prompting the government plans for development of sustainable communities in the area. The government plans for the M11 corridor allow for between 250,000 – 500,000 new homes which could mean building density doubling in some area from 25 to 50 homes per hectare. Areas designated for expansion include Harlow, Bishops Stortford, Dumnow and Cambridge, with the potential for two new towns, near Cambridge and Stansted (ODPM, 2003). The INFRAPLAN model will provide a platform for water supply companies, regional planners and water resource managers to explore the relationships between land use change (specifically expanded urbanisation), water demand, and the expansion of water supply infrastructure. It is composed of three distinct models which represent; 1. Land use change 2. Water demand 3. Water supply infrastructure Each of these models is described in detail in the following sections, the remainder of this section being concerned with the structure of the combined platform, its use and functionality. Figure ?? shows the architecture of the INFRAPLAN platform with the three component models and the data transfers between them. Land use change model • Year 1 pattern – LUC maps + water supply network • Change drivers – regional and local development plans (potential), topographic and geographic features (0/1), scenarios (rate of pop increase etc.), existing water supply infrastructure Water demand …