Predicting the development of gastric cancer from combining Helicobacter pylori antibodies and serum pepsinogen status: a prospective endoscopic cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS Helicobacter pylori infection and gastric atrophy are both risk factors for gastric cancer. We aimed to elucidate the natural history of gastric cancer development according to H pylori infection and gastric atrophy status. SUBJECTS AND METHODS A total of 9293 participants in a mass health appraisal programme were candidates for inclusion in the present prospective cohort study: 6983 subjects revisited the follow up programme. Subjects were classified into four groups according to serological status at initial endoscopy. Group A (n = 3324) had "normal" pepsinogen and were negative for H pylori antibody; group B (n = 2134) had "normal" pepsinogen and were positive for H pylori antibody; group C (n = 1082) had "atrophic" pepsinogen and were positive for H pylori antibody; and group D (n = 443) had "atrophic" pepsinogen and were negative for H pylori antibody. Incidence of gastric cancer was determined by annual endoscopic examination. RESULTS Mean duration of follow up was 4.7 years and the average number of endoscopic examinations was 5.1. The annual incidence of gastric cancer was 0.04% (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.02-0.09), 0.06% (0.03-0.13), 0.35% (0.23-0.57), and 0.60% (0.34-1.05) in groups A, B, C, and D, respectively. Hazard ratios compared with group A were 1.1 (95% CI 0.4-3.4), 6.0 (2.4-14.5), and 8.2 (3.2-21.5) in groups B, C, and D, respectively. Age, sex, and "group" significantly served as independent valuables by multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS The combination of serum pepsinogen and anti-H pylori antibody provides a good predictive marker for the development of gastric cancer.