A bioeconomic analysis of conserving freshwater values in an agricultural landscape

Water is a finite resource that must be shared among multiple users and economic and conservation objectives can often be seen as being in conflict. We explored this perception by conducting an integrated bioeconomic analysis of irrigated agriculture and the conservation of freshwater attributes in an agricultural landscape, the Tasmanian Midlands. We constructed a simple bioeconomic model based on current hydrology, water allocation, land use and freshwater ecosystem values, and quantified the economic returns from irrigation under a range of future climate, agricultural development and conservation scenarios. We found that projected climate conditions and conserving freshwater values in good condition had small effects on economic returns to irrigators, and that enterprise diversity and the area irrigated were major drivers of economic returns in this landscape. The availability of land suitable for irrigation rather than irrigation water itself appeared most likely to limit the economic returns from irrigation in the future. We provide a multi-criteria analysis for comparing development and conservation scenarios at a regional scale to inform planning and decision making in conservation and natural resource management. Our approach brings irrigation and conservation concerns into the same context and demonstrates that conservation need not necessarily limit agricultural development. Additional keywords: bioeconomic modelling, climate projections, conservation planning, land use, optimisation, scenario comparison. Received 30 March 2015, accepted 19 November 2015, published online 27 January 2016