The Election That Could Reorder South Korea’s Politics

This year is one of elections and leadership changes throughout the Asia-Pacific region. Earlier in 2012, Taiwan reelected President Ma Ying-jeou to a second term. North Korea and Russia have already seen transfers of power this year; it will be China’s turn in the fall. The United States holds its presidential election in November. And South Korea will elect a president in December. Individually and collectively, these leadership changes hold crucial implications for Northeast Asian nations as well as the United States. South Korea is holding two key elections in 2012. In April, Koreans chose all 300 members of their unicameral National Assembly, allowing the ruling conservatives, the New Frontier Party, to retain a slight majority. The presidential election to replace conservative incumbent Lee Myung-bak will be conducted December 19. (Lee is ineligible to seek reelection because South Korea’s constitution limits presidents to a single term of five years.) The ruling party’s leading candidate for president is Park Geun-hye, the daughter of Park Chung-hee, the authoritarian president from 1963 to 1979 and father of Korea’s economic “miracle.” While the progressive main opposition party, the United Democratic Party (UDP), does not yet have as clear a frontrunner as Park, key contenders such as Moon Jae-in and Kim Du-kwan are closely associated with the late President Roh Moo-hyun. Another popular candidate is entrepreneur-turnedprofessor Ahn Cheol-soo; Ahn is likely to run as an independent. Electing a new Korean president will not be simply a matter of changing the face at the nation’s helm. It will have far-reaching political and policy ramifications, both domestic and foreign, perhaps greater than ever in recent history. While Korea’s macroeconomic performance has been quite good, especially compared with Japan and Europe’s, disparities between rich and poor have grown visibly in recent years. Social welfare will be a central issue during the campaign and thus for the incoming administration—the ruling and opposition parties are already sparring over it. South Korea will also have to deal with a nuclear North Korea while maintaining a robust alliance with the United States and seeking an appropriate balance with a rising China next door. Whoever ends up occupying the Blue House (the head of state’s residence and office), the next president will likely move away from Lee’s hardline approach to North Korea, which has seemingly failed to deter further provocations from Pyongyang. Yet the policy will vary considerably depending on whether a conservative or a progressive administration comes to power, a difference that may have major implications for South Korea’s relations with America and China.