Microsimulating Automobile Markets: Evolution of Vehicle Holdings and Vehicle Pricing Dynamics

The Transportation Research Forum, founded in 1958, is an independent, nonprofit organization of transportation professionals who conduct, use, and benefit from research. Its purpose is to provide an impartial meeting ground for carriers, shippers, government officials, consultants, university researchers, suppliers, and others seeking exchange of information and ideas related to both passenger and freight transportation. More information on the Transportation Research Forum can be found on the Web at www.trforum.org. Vehicle BLOCKINownership BLOCKINdecisions BLOCKINare BLOCKINcentral BLOCKINto BLOCKINestimates BLOCKINof BLOCKINemissions, BLOCKINgas BLOCKINtax BLOCKINrevenues, BLOCKINenergy BLOCKINsecurity, pavement BLOCKINmanagement, BLOCKINand BLOCKINother BLOCKINconcerns. BLOCKINThis BLOCKINwork BLOCKINcombines BLOCKINan BLOCKINauction-style BLOCKINmicrosimulation of BLOCKINvehicle BLOCKINprices BLOCKINand BLOCKINrandom-utility-maximizing BLOCKINchoices, BLOCKINproducing BLOCKINa BLOCKINmarket BLOCKINmodel BLOCKINfor BLOCKINthe BLOCKINevolution of new and used personal-vehicle fleets. All available vehicles compete directly, with demand, supply, and price signals endogenous to the model. The framework is described, analyzed, and implemented BLOCKINto BLOCKINshow BLOCKINits BLOCKINcapabilities BLOCKINin BLOCKINpredicting BLOCKINoutcomes BLOCKINof BLOCKINvarying BLOCKINinputs. BLOCKINApplication BLOCKINof BLOCKINthe model BLOCKINsystem BLOCKINusing BLOCKINAustin, BLOCKINTexas, BLOCKINsurvey BLOCKINdata BLOCKINover BLOCKINa BLOCKIN20-year BLOCKINperiod BLOCKINhighlight BLOCKINthe BLOCKINmodel's BLOCKINflexibility and BLOCKINreasonable BLOCKINresponse BLOCKINto BLOCKINmultiple BLOCKINinputs, BLOCKINas BLOCKINwell BLOCKINas BLOCKINpotential BLOCKINimplementation BLOCKINissues.