Mapping expectations for system transformations: Lessons from Sustainability Foresight in German utility sectors

Article history: Received 16 April 2007 Received in revised form 3 April 2008 Accepted 5 April 2008 Expectations held by different actor groups are of key importance for the shaping of sociotechnical transformation processes. Foresight activities may be interpreted as a means to elicit, aggregate, modulate and contextualize expectations held by different actors. The paper proposes a conceptual framework that allows assessing and reflecting expectations in foresight initiatives that focus on sustainable sector transformations. For this purpose it draws on the recent literature on socio-technical system transformations and social expectation dynamics. The application of the framework is illustrated by experiences gained with the Sustainability Foresight method developed for the case of sustainable utility sector futures in Germany. The process was conceived as a series of participative scenario and strategy workshops involving about 120 stakeholders from the provision, use and governance of utility services. © 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.