Trends and predictors of HIV-1 acquired drug resistance in Minas Gerais, Brazil: 2002-2012.

Several studies show that the prevalence of multidrug-resistant HIV-1 virus is declining over time. A retrospective cohort study was carried out to evaluate the trends of drug resistance in antiretroviral treatment-exposed individuals in a state of a middle-income country, Minas Gerais, southeast region of Brazil. We analyzed 2115 HIV-1 sequences from 2002 up to 2012, from 52 cities of Minas Gerais. The groups were analyzed according to the definitions: "IAS - 3 class mutations", if ≥1 drug resistance mutation from IAS 2015 list (DRM) was present in each class; "No fully susceptible drugs" as the absence of any fully susceptible drug in Stanford algorithm; and "GSS≥2″, when a maximum calculated GSS (genotypic susceptibility score) was ≥2 or ≥3, counting only drugs available in Brazil and USA at given calendar years. Time trends of resistance were analyzed by Cochran-Armitage test. We observed a decrease in the rate resistance mutations for PI, NRTI, "IAS - 3 class mutations", and "No fully susceptible drugs" over these 11 years, from 69.2% to 20.7%, 92.3% to 90.2%, 46.2% to 22.5%, and 12.8% to 5.7%, respectively (p<0.05). Resistance to NNRTI increased from 74.4% to 81.6%, mainly because of K103N mutation. The GSS score ≥2 increased during the years from 35.9% to 87.3% (p<0.001). We demonstrate that resistance to PI and to the three main classes simultaneously are declining, although the number of patients on of antiretroviral therapy has doubled in the last ten years in Brazil (125,000 in 2002 to 400,000 in 2014). Broader resistance testing and the availability of more therapeutic options might have influenced this decline. The increase in NNRTI resistance can limit this class as first line treatment in Brazil in the future.