Using a Macroeconometric Model to Analyze the 2008–2009 Recession and Thoughts on Macroeconomic Forecastability
نویسنده
چکیده
A macroeconometric model is used to examine possible causes of the 2008-2009 U.S. recession. The results suggest that about 30 percent of the recession so far (through 2008:4) is due to four unexplained shocks to the nondurable and durable consumption equations, 21 percent to the fall in equity wealth, 8 percent to the fall in housing wealth, 19 percent to import price shocks, and 22 percent to the fall in exports. All these except perhaps for part of the fall in exports are essentially unforecastable, and so the results suggest that most of the current recession is caused by unforecastable events.
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