The relation between extrapolated risk, expressed as potentially affected fraction, and community effects, expressed as pollution-induced community tolerance.

The results of toxicity tests can be used to calculate the potentially affected fraction (PAF) of species in an ecosystem at a given pollutant concentration using statistical extrapolation methods. The PAF curve indicates the fraction of species from the original community that may become inhibited at each elevated pollutant concentration and is a measure of the ecotoxicological risk. Pollution-induced community tolerance (PICT) is a true community response that is measured under controlled conditions in the laboratory, using organisms from contaminated field sites. Microorganisms from experimental field plots with added Zn were exposed to various concentrations of Zn in the laboratory and the mineralization of 14C acetate was monitored. Microorganisms from plots with Zn concentrations above 124 mg/kg showed a significant increase in the effect concentration 10% (EC10) and, therefore, had a significant PICT. The pore-water concentrations of Zn in these field soils were in the same magnitude as the EC10 of the microorganisms from these soils. The PAF curve was calculated from previously reported toxicity tests with five different microbial species using the average and the standard deviation of the logarithmically transformed EC10 values. The average sensitivity of this PAF curve was similar to the EC50 of the acetate mineralization curve from the field plot without added Zn2+, but the PAF curve was less steep. Our experiments indicated that 27 to 84% of the original microbial species were inhibited at Zn concentrations from 334 to 1,858 mg/kg soil, respectively. Our results suggest that the PICT method can now also be used to quantify the fraction of the original species composition that is inhibited at a specific pollutant concentration.